Workshop: Experimental Applications for Conflict Resolution

The CGSC and Quantitative Cluster are pleased to host the second mini-workshop of the new quantitative research cluster, based in POLIS. Join us on Wednesday 24th April for two presentations by Prof. Edward Morgan-Jones (University of Kent), and Dr. Laura Sudulich (University of Essex). The presentations will be followed by a discussion and refreshments.  

Prof. Morgan-Jones will present a project titled “What policies increase public support for reintegrating armed group defectors? Evidence from a conjoint survey in Nigeria”, Dr. Sudulich will present a paper titled "Winning the People’s Peace? Grievances, Territory and Credible Commitments in Negotiated Settlements". Please find the abstracts below. 

Winning the People’s Peace? Grievances, Territory and Credible Commitments in Negotiated Settlements 

Dr. Laura Sudulich 

Abstract 

The peace and conflict literature offers competing answers about what drives citizens decisions to support peace arrangements. Existing explanations, which emphasize security dilemmas, economic and political grievances as well as financial incentives and territorial gains/losses are rarely juxtaposed to each other or integrated into a comparative analysis. To address this gap, we examine which multi-issue peace settlement provisions and institutions addressing these areas are more or less likely to secure citizen acceptance. We employ conjoint experiments and introduce and test an integrative framework in Cyprus (adoption phase-Study 1) and Northern Ireland (adaptation stage-Study 2). These studies highlight tensions and trade-offs in public preferences for economic restitutions, territory, security, and human rights’ protection, offering insights how different institutional features shape the legitimacy citizens attribute to potential peace settlements. Our results indicate consistent emphasis on importance of territory and of economic compensations for victims, as well as potential points of agreement on seemingly intractable issues. The approach advanced here can be applied to different contexts to explore the interplay between group preferences and institutional design as well as to develop a fuller understanding of inclusive peace settlements. 

What policies increase public support for reintegrating armed group defectors? Evidence from a conjoint survey in Nigeria 

Prof. Edward Morgan-Jones 

Abstract 

Which policies will citizens support to enable the reintegration ex-combatants into their communities? One challenge for policy-makers is to find the optimal mix of policy instruments, as reintegration policies are complex packages combing provisions on material benefits, procedural questions, and reconciliation. We leverage a conjoint survey experiment with over 2,400 respondents in two locations in Nigeria to elucidate the relative importance of reintegration policy provisions and the trade-offs respondents are willing to make between them. Combining the conjoint with a vignette experiment allows us to identify how preferences change depending on the violent past of the former fighter.  We find that economic benefits for former fighters, communities, and victims are more popular than non-material benefits or procedural issues. In sharp contrast to previous research, we find that respondents, including those from potential host communities, support economic benefits for former fighters, even if the host communities does not receive any. Since economic benefits are crucial to reduce the recidivism of former fighters, this suggests that respondents may prioritize peace and security over fairness, with implications for both theory and policy. 

For any questions, please contact Margherita Belgioioso at m.belgioioso@leeds.ac.uk.